Bracketology Breakdown
Last Four In: Central Connecticut State, Monmouth, Albany, Incarnate Word
First Five Out: The Citadel, Stony Brook, Eastern Kentucky, North Dakota, Southern Illinois
I cannot remember a time while doing bracketology that I ever had two teams from the Northeast Conference on the tree at the same time. Still see Duquesne as the automatic qualifier, but Central Connecticut State has yet to lose a game against the FCS. They play each other the final week of the season, perhaps for all the marbles.
Monmouth also jumps in this week, though it may be short lived as they travel to Kennesaw State next week. The bubble is soft and the Hawks deserve the spot as much as anyone. They beat Albany, who projects in the field right now. They also went to Montana, but lost, so they scheduled as best as they could. If they beat Kennesaw State, they will likely win the Big South and be an automatic qualifier anyway. So, we’ll giveth now, even if we have to taketh later.
The Southland and Ohio Valley are a mess. The top of the Southland is Central Arkansas’ right now to lose and they should be in good hands with a FBS win in their pocket. Behind them are up to seven teams who could all make a November push and squeak in at the finish line like Incarnate Word and Lamar did in 2018. The Ohio Valley is even more chaotic. Every team in the conference has at least three losses overall with multiple games against one another remaining. Southeast Missouri State is the new, once again, projected automatic qualifier. That may last as long as next week, the way things have progressed in this conference.
Just off the tree this week, The Citadel and Southern Illinois are interesting characters as they have FBS wins to carry into Selection Committee deliberations later. Stony Brook is the beneficiary of playing in the Colonial. Their recent road win over Villanova is big but their non-conference schedule wasn’t particularly strong. North Dakota, on the other hand, is playing a lame duck Big Sky slate and played Sam Houston State (win) and North Dakota State (loss) in “non-conference” action. Eastern Kentucky is in much the same boat as Stony Brook, but they have four games remaining against the top of the OVC. They could likely play their way in with a 3-1 finish.
Bids By Conference
Big Sky (4): *Weber State, Sacramento State, Montana, Montana State
Big South (2): *Kennesaw State, Monmouth
Colonial (3): *James Madison, Villanova, Albany
Missouri Valley (4): *North Dakota State, South Dakota State, Illinois State, Northern Iowa
Northeast (2): *Duquesne, Central Connecticut State
Ohio Valley (2): *Southeast Missouri State, Jacksonville State
Patriot (1): *Holy Cross
Pioneer (1): *San Diego
Southern (2): *Furman, Wofford
Southland (3): *Central Arkansas, Southeastern Louisiana, Incarnate Word
* denotes projected conference automatic qualifier
