Last Four In: Northern Iowa, Maine, Idaho State, Samford
First Four Out: Chattanooga, McNeese, North Carolina A&T, Monmouth
The 5-4’s Hanging On (in alphabetical order): Abilene Christian, Central Arkansas, Eastern Kentucky, Furman (who’s actually 4-4), Illinois State, Indiana State, Montana, Montana State, North Dakota, Rhode Island, Sam Houston State
Let’s hit this bubble again, right off the bat. The first four out have all separated themselves from the rest of the contenders, just for the fact that they have six or seven wins. That’s not to say they’re going to be pushing into the field necessarily, if and when teams in the field lose. Especially if these teams find a loss themselves. McNeese and Monmouth actually have a better route to the field as automatic bid takers. If a tiebreaker happens in the MEAC, North Carolina A&T would likely be eliminated from this grouping and headed to the Celebrations Bowl.
The group of four loss teams is crazy. Crazy in that there are that many and that’s not counting Western Illinois, Northern Iowa and Samford, who are currently holding spots in the field. Those three teams, though, are all being considered locks if they win out. Losses by any of them is likely “splitsville” from qualifying.
Another bad week in the Southland has dropped them to one-bid status currently. Most likely they’ll find a way to a second bid, but it’s not 100% promised at this point. The Colonial jumps back to six bids, but this looks virtually impossible by season’s end when you look at the number of head-to-head games still to be played between the six and Rhode Island, from the 5-4 group. Idaho State has jumped back into the field after a couple of wins. They’re a very interesting case. One of their wins is sub-Division I, but they’ve only lost once to an FCS team, UC-Davis. Don’t look now, but Samford is hot and they’ve been scorching people. A win this coming week with The Citadel will set up a SoCon showdown with East Tennessee State for the conference’s automatic berth.
Big Sky (4): *UC-Davis, Weber State, Eastern Washington, Idaho State
Big South (1): *Kennesaw State
Colonial (6): *Elon, Delaware, James Madison, Stony Brook, Stony Brook, Maine
Missouri Valley (4): #North Dakota State, South Dakota State, Western Illinois, Northern Iowa
Northeast (1): *Sacred Heart
Ohio Valley (2): *Southeast Missouri State, Jacksonville State
Patriot (1): #Colgate
Pioneer (1): *San Diego
Southern (3): *East Tennessee State, Wofford, Samford
Southland (1): *Nicholls
* denotes conference’s projected automatic qualifier
# clinched their conference’s automatic bid
