Last Four In: SE Louisiana, Northern Arizona, Lamar, Youngstown State
First Four Out: New Hampshire, Lafayette, Southern Illinois, Sacramento State
Big Sky: Montana, Montana State are locks. UC Davis could use one more win against Sacramento State to feel safe, but they are probably in anyway. Speaking of Sacramento State, if they beat UC Davis, they’ll be 8-4 and right on the bubble. Northern Arizona would reach the same 8-4 mark with a win and be in a similar bubble spot.
Big South / OVC: Tennessee Tech is a lock. However, Tennessee-Martin can win the automatic bid should they beat the Golden Eagles this Saturday. That is the only way UTM reaches the playoffs and would clearly be a bid stealer. Gardner-Webb has an uphill battle, but if they win this week, they will be 8-4 overall and 8-2 against the FCS. That win against Western Carolina looks less impressive than it did a couple weeks ago.
Coastal: Monmouth, Rhode Island and Villanova are locks. New Hampshire has a strong case with a win over Maine on Saturday. An 8-4 record should be enough for a CAA team to get in, but William & Mary has the same argument yet their slate lacks a big victory.
Ivy: The winner of Harvard-Yale gets the auto bid. Harvard would be hosting a game with a win. However, with a loss they should be in anyway. Yale’s only way in is the auto bid. Dartmouth deserves to be in the conversation as well. They did lose to Penn and Harvard, but they have a big win over New Hampshire on the resume and would presumably finish 8-2 overall.
MVFC: North Dakota State, South Dakota and Illinois State are locks. South Dakota State, Youngstown State and North Dakota will get in with wins in their final game. A loss and all of those teams are battling each other for the best 7-5 teams. SDSU and UND play each other, so one will be a lock and the other will be sweating it out. Southern Illinois will be in that 7-5 mix too with a win. Those 7-5 teams will very much be hoping to avoid bid stealers like Tennessee-Martin and Yale.
Northeast: Central Connecticut State gets the auto bid with a win over Mercyhurst. A loss and we’ll get one of those three or four team NEC tie-breakers.
Patriot: Lehigh is a lock, but Lafayette can steal the auto bid should they beat Lehigh this weekend. That would make the Patriot League a two-bid league.
Pioneer: Drake needs to beat Morehead State to win an outright Pioneer title. Presbyterian and San Diego are waiting for a slip up.
Southern: Mercer has clinched the automatic bid.
Southland: Stephen F. Austin has clinched the auto bid. Southeastern Louisiana would be a lock with a win. A loss and they would sweat it out a bit at 8-4 overall. Lamar is in a similar position, but they have a nice non-conference win over South Dakota that should get them in even if they fall to 8-4 with an upset loss to McNeese on Saturday.
UAC: Tarleton State is a lock. Abilene Christian should be in with a win and could still win the conference if Tarleton State were to lose. Speaking of Tarleton State losing, that would be the only way for Austin Peay to get into the playoffs. It will not be easy for the Governors to hit the road and beat Tarleton State, but that would leave Austin Peay at 8-4 with a win over an FBS team.
Bids By Conference
Big Sky: Montana, Montana State, Northern Arizona, UC Davis
Big South / Ohio Valley: Tennessee Tech
Coastal: Monmouth, Rhode Island, Villanova
Ivy: Harvard
Missouri Valley: Illinois State, North Dakota, North Dakota State, South Dakota, South Dakota State, Youngstown State
Northeast: Central Connecticut State
Patriot: Lehigh
Pioneer: Drake
Southern: Mercer
Southland: Lamar, Southeastern Louisiana, Stephen F. Austin
UAC: Abilene Christian, Tarleton State
