Welcome back to another week of Picks by KY, three months into the season already. Although the main focus is most likely your NFL playoff bets this weekend, I did manage to find one game on Saturday to take a look at early in the morning. I figured with football dominating the upcoming days it may be better to pay attention to the weekday games next week. The rest of the bets that I like happened to fall on Wednesday so read below for my picks for the week twelve.
UCF -6 @ South Florida 1/21 11am CST
UCF has been consistent all year against everyone but they’ve been more consistent against teams that just aren’t as good as them. Outside of their home opener against UNC Asheville, they have not lost to anyone outside the top 85 in KenPom. Going into this article, South Florida is currently ranked #148.
There’s a lot that favors UCF in this matchup, even on the road. South Florida shoots at a terrible number from beyond the arc at home, 31.4% while UCF shoots 35.9% overall and 33.9% away. To make this even worse, UCF is ranked #39 (30.1%) against defending the three ball while the Bulls are all the way at #206 (34.2%). There are also two things I like to look at while playing on the road and the Knights have an advantage in both. The first is offensive rebounding where they’re #9 in the country and the other is free throw percentage where not only is UCF at 76.5%, #24, but South Florida is a horrendous #341, shooting 64.1% from the line currently.
I think we can get -6 on UCF but it may open even larger so I will wait. I am willing to take -7 or better on the Knights.
Samford +6 @ Furman 1/25 6pm CST
Samford should be playing Britney Spears “Oops I did it again” after each game in their locker room currently because it’s been quite a run. After starting 6-7 on the season, they’ve now ran off seven straight wins in conference to be atop the Southern by a game. Although Furman has a ton of talent, this feels like a game where an extremely hot team is going to be getting too many points on the road.
This could be a shootout because neither team defends the deep ball yet both rank very high in three point shooting percentage. Samford comes in shooting 37.1% (#42 in the nation) on the year. Furman isn’t far behind at #107 shooting 35.2%, a number that any team would be happy with.
These teams are pretty even in the categories I take a look at, with one big away stat leaning Samford’s way, where they are #120 in offensive rebounding percentage and Furman is #211. When I looked at the categories I prefer, it was VERY close in a lot of them. Which makes me think that this should be a close game and spread.
I would take Samford all the way down to +4, but I am really hoping for a hot opening number around +6 or +7 before it’s bet down.
George Mason @ VCU -6 1/25 6pm CST
It’s weird to me how some trends seem to always continue. I’ve been doing this a while and even before their second-year head coach Kim English, George Mason was always a team that struggled on the road and was REALLY good at home. This has been continuing as they’ve lost three straight on the road against SLU, St. Bonaventure, and Old Dominion. VCU on the other hand has just been hot in general, winning nine of their last ten including a MASSIVE road win against the hottest A-10 team, Dayton, just a week ago.
VCU is more of a team than an individual. They have five scorers between 9.2 and 12.5 points per game. Out of those five, they have two sharp shooters from deep in Adrian Baldwin Jr. (44%) and Jayden Nunn (44%). They have three starters that have between 4.8 and 6.9 rebounds per game and Adrian Baldwin Jr. is the gel of the core dishing out 6.0 assists per game and 2.4 steals.
Once again I see this opening at -6 to -7 next week. These games are all several days ahead of time so a lot can change between now and then but I would take VCU -6 or better in this matchup.
Tulane +1 @ Wichita State 1/25 8pm CST
This game for me is just taking the overall better squad. Wichita State has been the definition of mediocre this year, most recently dropping four of their last six, with those two wins coming from terrible teams in South Florida and Tulsa. Tulane is on the opposite end currently winning five of their last six with wins against UCF, at Temple, and Memphis at home. That one loss was against a decent team in #1 ranked Houston.
What I love about watching this Tulane team is their backcourt play (something to keep in mind for March if they make it). Jaylen Forbes and Jalen Cook combine for 37.5 points per game. Forbes is the better three point shooter at 38.8% but they also are absolute nails when you need a win down the stretch combining to shoot a ludicrous 90.5% from the free throw line.
That’s not all Tulane brings to the table, forward Kevin Cross is a nice third piece averaging 14.4 points, 6.1 rebounds, and 3.9 assists per game while also shooting 83.8 % from the free throw line. Yes you guessed it, Tulane ranks #2 in the entire country from the line, at 82.2% as a team.
I think Wichita State will actually be small favorites to open but I don’t think that’ll last long. Willing to take Tulane to -2 here and will trigger the money line early if I see them at +1 or worse.
Goodluck to all of your sports gambling this weekend and as always please bet responsibly.
