Week 4 College Basketball Picks by KY


 

Hope everyone had a good Thanksgiving, here we are already in week four of the college basketball season. Please follow my daily picks on Twitter @PicksbyKY, admittedly it has been an absolutely wild college basketball season thus far in the lower ranks, seeing a lot of underdogs covering and winning out right. Below is my look ahead games for the upcoming week!

 

Louisiana Tech @ Samford 11/25 2:00pm

Samford has been a watch for me since I read about them in the offseason, this is what I had typed up:

“Samford is bringing in the second most RPMS in the league at 70.1% yet is picked to finish in the same spot as last year, something I do not agree with after taking a look at the roster. Their top seven will consist of 2SRs, 4 JRs, and 1 SO. They’re also returning 3/5 top scorers, all in the double digits, including their top scorer in Ques Glover who had 19.2ppg/4.4apg. They’re also returning their second leading scorer in Jermaine Marshall who had 13ppg/8.2rpg and shot 46.9% from the field. Last but not least is Jaden Campbell is bringing back 10.2ppg and shot 38.8% from deep on 4.8 att/game, their best 3-point shooter”

So far this has come to fruition as they have been absolutely dominating with a 30-point home win over Valparaiso, a fifteen-point win over Texas Southern at home, and a twenty-point win over Alabama A&M at their place. Ques Glover and Jermaine Marshall remain their two top scorers but have an evenly distributed five players averaging double figures.

This is probably going to be a “wrong team favored” situation but I would Take Samford to -3.

 

New Mexico State neutral court VS San Diego 11/25 8:30pm

If you want my opinion on New Mexico State you can go back to last week’s article where I wrote about how I am pretty low on them this year. Unfortunately, that game was cancelled against New Mexico because of a tragic campus shooting, but it gives you an idea on my thought process.

On the flip side, I love San Diego this year under Steve Lavin. They’ve beat a strong FGCU team and barely loss to a VERY good Utah State team. Transfer from Oregon, Eric Williams Jr, is putting up massive numbers scoring 22.3 points/game and shooting an outrageous 52.9% from the three-point line. He’s also adding in 11.5 rebounds/game so I don’t really need to say it but I will, he’s the core of this team. You’ve also got Seikou Sisoho Jaware dumping in 18.7 points/game and shooting 45% from beyond the arc, Jase Townsend with 14.6ppg and Marcellus Earlington bringing in 13 points/game. The team isn’t deep but they’re similar to Toledo where their top 6 are dominant so they don’t need to be.

Would take San Diego up to -5 on a neutral court and I can almost guarantee it’ll be below that.

 

South Dakota State neutral game VS James Madison 11/26 11:00am

I put this in here because I personally think it’s going to be a great game to watch Saturday morning. South Dakota State has looked much better than I thought they would with their young group of guys but I don’t think James Madison is going to be favored by enough.

This far into the season, I would say the Dukes are one of the more surprising teams in Mid-Major basketball. They’ve got five players averaging double digit points/game at 14.6, 14.6, 10.8, 10, and 10. This team spreads out minutes which is rare in these ranks. Their top guy averaging 23.8 minutes/game and their ninth guy averaging 14.4 minutes per game. That’s right, they’ve got nine guys almost averaging fifteen minutes per game.

I think South Dakota State will get more credit than they deserve and would take James Madison -6 or better.

 

Louisiana @ Drake 11/26 5:00pm

This is a little different of a write up than I would normally do on a game as I like both teams so it depends on the number. They’ve both been very hot to start the year, a combined 10-0.

Louisiana is coming off a huge overtime win at SMU in Dallas. They’ve got Jordan Brown putting in 20.2 points per game and 7.2 rebounds per game to lead their team. They’re also deep, going with nine men, with players six through nine averaging between 16 and 16.4 minutes per game. I love depth especially with all these games bunched together early in the season.

On the other side of things, Drake will have the best player on the floor in Tucker Devries. The sophomore guard is averaging 21 points/game, 4.6 rebounds/game and is shooting 46.4% from long range on 5.6 attempts/game. He is the do it all guy for Drake, but they too dig into their bench, playing seven guys over 20 minutes/game.

If Drake is -6 or more, I like Louisiana but if it’s under -6 I like Drake. Either way, this should be a great game to watch.

 

Goodluck to all of your bets this weekend and as always please follow @PicksbyKY on Twitter for daily bets.