NFL Weather Factors: How Does Weather Affect NFL Betting

NFL Weather Factors: How Does Weather Affect NFL Betting

There are 30 full-time venues used as the home stadium for NFL teams, out of which eight stadiums are fixed domes or have retractable roofs. The other 23 stadiums are open-air, exposed to the natural elements.

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Thus, you might have seen NFL games played in a variety of weather conditions, including windy, cold, and rainy conditions.

The weather conditions affect the NFL betting odds. The game-day temperature is also an important determinant of team performance and scoring.

This means you now need to better predict the winners to increase your possibilities of winning the bet.

The Impact of Weather on NFL Total Scoring 

NFL bettors betting on the total points in a game often neglect weather and environmental factors such as temperature, wind speed, rain, and stadiums.

1- Dome Vs. Open Stadiums

As mentioned above, NFL teams play in dome stadiums, retractable roofs as well as in open-air.

The data generated for 2003 to 2013, showed that matches played under a dome averaged over 46 points per game compared to around 42 for those played outdoors. It implies that teams score better in domed stadiums than outdoors with exposure to weather conditions.

2- Warm Vs. Cold

When assessing possible weather factors that affect the outcome of the game, it appeared that temperature makes the biggest difference.

Analyzing Pro-Football-Reference data, indicated that points scored steadily decrease with temperature. Averaging the last thousand league points scored, showed that temperatures below 10 degrees during the game resulted in an average of 39 points, whereas temperatures above 50 degrees had an average of 44 points.

However, the data also indicated that the drop in points affected the home and road teams differently. Home teams handled the weather better than the road teams. This leads to the conclusion that cold weather games hold a significant advantage for the home team.

3- Windy Climate

Wind affects all teams by decreasing their passing efficiency. Teams also tend to run the ball more often in windy weather than normal weather conditions.

As per a study, utilizing the NFL game data from the 2002-2013 seasons, wind speeds of 10 mph are estimated to reduce quarterback ratings by 1.7 points, total passing yards by 6.8%, completion percentage by 2.4%, and yards per completion by 1.6%.

Facts & Myths About Sports & Weather

There are various myths floating around about sports and weather in the NFL. There are many facts as well that are lesser-known. Here are the things that you must be aware of.

Facts

  • Steady rain affects both offensive and defensive sides.
  • A strong rush of wind can send the ball into the hands of the opposing team’s defense.
  • Substantial rainfall can create muddy areas, puddles, and sinkholes on football fields.
  • Wet fields are slower fields that make athletes have a hard time adjusting to the change of pace.
  • It is easier to slip or lose footing while defending an opposing team member.
  • In the cold weather, it is harder to take a deep breath, muscles become tighter, and it gets tougher to feel your extremities.

Myths

  • Games played in rainy conditions will have less total scoring.
  • Snow has a significant impact on the final scoring of games played outdoors.
  • Athletes play worse in bad weather conditions. 

Which NFL Positions are Most Impacted by Worst Weather?

Humidity and precipitation affect how the game is played and how well a player performs.

Inclement weather makes it difficult for the quarterbacks and receivers to make the passes due to low visibility. Precipitation also causes the ball to slip out of their hands, making it tough to grip it.

Downfield passing and receiving plays are also affected by extreme weather conditions. The offense risks fumbling the ball when attempting to receive a pass in the rain.

It is also not the best condition for outside running. Running to the outside requires a good amount of cutting and is not done very often in rain and snow.

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NFL Weather Factors Betting Strategy

Differences in the game-day temperature and the mean five-day temperature create inefficiencies in betting markets. 

Let’s see a few strategies to make better betting choices.

  • Under bets offers bettors the chance to grab a supreme price if the market changes due to the bad weather condition.
  • Bettors should read NFL weather forecasts and reports to see if the conditions look favorable or unfavorable, such as the potential for high wind or snow.
  • Analyze and figure out whether an offense will be able to score on defense. In most of the cases, the offense that can score better is going to win the game.
  • It will be smarter to bet on the team that is more experienced playing in a particular weather condition. 

Final Thoughts

Understanding the impact of weather on NFL betting can significantly increase your odds of winning. It is also important to know how different weather conditions such as cold, hot, rainy, and windy climates may affect a game.