College Football Playoff Picture After Week 2

College Football Playoff Picture After Week 2

Just two games into the season (for most teams), the College Football Playoff picture has slightly more clarity than it did before the year.

According to Sportsbettingdime.com, which has been tracking the odds to reach the four-team playoff since May, eight teams were deemed serious CFP contenders before the season. But those contenders were not created equal.

The Preseason Odds

The two teams in the top tier were …

  • Clemson: -530 odds (84.1% chance to reach the CFP)
  • Alabama: -290 (74.4%)

The second tier consisted of …

  • Georgia: +110 (47.6%)
  • Oklahoma: +180 (35.7%)
  • Ohio State: +220 (31.3%)
  • Michigan: +230 (30.3%)

And the third tier was …

  • LSU: +450 (18.2%)
  • Texas: +510 (16.4%)

After Texas, there was a steep drop to Oregon at +750 (11.8%).

The early results have made the oddsmakers look prophetic.

The Early Returns for Clemson and Alabama

As expected, Clemson and Alabama are both 2-0 and neither has been threatened.

That’s more impressive for Clemson, as they routed No. 16 Texas A&M in Week 2, winning 24-10, a final score which flatters the Aggies. (It was 24-3 in the final minute of the 4th quarter.)

They also smashed Georgia Tech in Week 1 (52-14).

Alabama has held serve against Duke (42-3) and New Mexico State (62-10).

When the odds are updated, expect last year’s national championship game combatants to have slightly shorter odds than they already did.

Which Teams Are Trending Up?

When it comes to the secondary contenders, there will be significant movement, some up, some down.

The biggest risers will likely be Ohio State and LSU.

The Buckeyes have dominated FAU (45-21) and Cincinnati (42-0), looking just as strong under Ryan Day as they did under Urban Meyer.

LSU, meanwhile, walloped Georgia Southern (55-3) and then won at Texas (45-38) in an early contender for game of the season.

Crucially, both Ohio State and LSU have seen their respective QBs (Justin Fields and Joe Burrow) play extremely well, especially Burrow. A competent passer is really all LSU has been missing in the Ed Orgeron era.

Georgia and Oklahoma are also 2-0 with convincing victories, but all four of their opponents were seriously overmatched and those early games tell us little about the true strength of the Bulldogs and Sooners.

Georgia has beaten Vanderbilt (30-6) and Murray State (63-17), while OU got by Houston (49-31) and South Dakota (70-14).

Their odds will likely stay put in the immediate future.

Which Teams Are Trending Down?

Astute readers will note that Michigan and Texas are left.

Michigan is 2-0 on paper, but did not look good in either game.

In Week 1, they only beat C-USA also-ran Middle Tennessee by 19 as 36-point favorites. In Week 2, they needed two OTs to beat Army at the Big House, and they were extremely lucky not to lose in regulation.

With games at Wisconsin and Penn State looming, plus home dates with Michigan State and Ohio State, the Wolverines will need to play much better than they have so far to win the Big Ten. And if they don’t win the Big Ten, they’re not going to the playoff.

As touched on, Texas was on the losing end of the Week 2 thriller with LSU. The Longhorns were extremely competitive in that game as seven-point home underdogs and, at the end of the year, a close loss to this LSU team is likely going to be one of the most-excusable Ls a team could take. But the fact remains, they are the only team on this list with a loss on its resume, and you need to beat the best to be the best.

Texas is now a longshot to get into the four-team CFP and their odds will reflect that.  

Teams That Are Now on the Radar

When it comes to teams that could surprise, keep your eyes on the following squads, which all sit 2-0 with two convincing victories:

  • Wisconsin Badgers
  • Penn State Nittany Lions
  • Utah Utes
  • UCF Knights
  • Michigan State Spartans