Top 5 National Championship Contenders/Favorites at Midseason
Roughly halfway through the 2018-19 season, there is a sort-of consensus on who the top-five teams in the country are. Whether looking at the current AP Poll or the latest odds to win March Madness, the same five teams are at the top, though in varying orders.
Duke
When point guard Tre Jones went down with a painful-looking shoulder injury, it briefly appeared that Duke’s season might be completely derailed. But, since their shocking home loss to Syracuse, the Blue Devils have responded with a win over undefeated Virginia and a rout of Pittsburgh. They got more good news when it was reported that Jones won’t be sidelined for long, likely returning this weekend against Georgia Tech.
- Record: 15-2
- March Madness odds: +200 (1st)
- AP Poll ranking: 2nd
- KenPom ranking: 2nd
Virginia
The Cavaliers only loss this year came by two points in Cameron Indoor to Duke, a team with the sure-fire top-two picks in the 2019 NBA draft and another top-five prospect. Tony Bennett’s team is ranked 1st at KenPom and has a significantly better efficiency rating (35.48) than any team since 2014-15 Kentucky (36.91). They are eager to erase the bitter memories of the UMBC loss at last year’s tournament and a rolling through the competition with extreme prejudice.
- Record: 16-1
- March Madness odds: +1000 (4th)
- AP Poll ranking: 3rd
- KenPom ranking: 1st
Tennessee
Coming off a surprisingly strong 26-9 season last year, they were expected to be good, but not this good. Led by two potential first-round picks of their own (Grant Williams and Admiral Schofield), Tennessee is as physical and hard-working a team as there is. Their only loss was a neutral-site OT game against then-no. 2 Kansas (87-81) and they are 4-0 in true road games, the best mark in the nation. That said, the Volunteers narrowly escaped disaster at Vanderbilt this week, edging the lowly Commodores 88-83 in OT.
- Record: 16-1
- March Madness odds: +1200 (5th)
- AP Poll ranking: 3rd
- KenPom ranking: 1st
Gonzaga
Since blowing an eight-point second-half lead to Tennessee in Phoenix (76-73) and then getting routed at UNC (103-90), Gonzaga has rattled off nine straight wins by no fewer than 13 points. Before their two-game December skid, they became the first team to beat Duke (89-87) and also eased by a decent Creighton team in Omaha (103-92). Both of those wins came when star forward Killian Tillie was still injured. The ceiling for this team remains unknown because the WCC doesn’t provide the stiffest of competition, but it’s clearly high.
- Record: 18-2
- March Madness odds: +970 (3rd)
- AP Poll ranking: 4th
- KenPom ranking: 4th
Michigan
Despite massive roster turnover, the Wolverines may be even better than last year’s squad that went to the title game. Their perfect record was put to bed at Wisconsin last weekend (64-54), but the game was a lot closer than the final score suggests. A sure sign of a quality team, Michigan has absolutely destroyed a handful of good opponents this year, including Villanova (73-46 away), UNC (84-67 home), and Purdue (76-57 home).
- Record: 17-1
- March Madness odds: +930 (2nd)
- AP Poll ranking: 5th
- KenPom ranking: 6th
