Fresno State Men's Basketball 2016 NCAA Tournament Capsule

Fresno State Bulldogs
Mountain West (25-9, 13-5)
After starting the season 5-0, Fresno State had trouble stringing together wins. It looked like the Bulldogs could end up in the middle of the Mountain West. But a big 111-104 win over UNLV and a quality home win over San Diego State seemed to turn things around. Following a loss at Nevada, Fresno State won their last six regular season games to finish second place in the conference. That momentum carried over to Las Vegas during the conference tournament. After knocking off the hometown team, Fresno State slipped past Colorado State and San Diego State to earn the MW automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament.
Big Wins: 2/27 at New Mexico (92-82), 2/10 San Diego State (58-57), 3/12 vs San Diego State (68-63)
Bad Losses: 12/5 at Cal Poly (65-77), 2/3 at San Jose State (53-65), 2/13 at Nevada (72-77)
Coach: Rodney Terry
Why They Can Surprise:
Fresno State has one of the best scorers in the country in Marvelle Harris. The 6-4 senior averages 20.6 points per game and adds 4.4 assists, 4.7 rebounds and 2.2 steals. Harris is not the most consistent shooter on the team, but he is dangerous enough from beyond the arc to keep the opposition honest. More importantly, Harris is a clutch senior who Coach Rodney Terry trusts to take the big shots. Harris is also a huge reason why Fresno State has such a great turnover margin. Not only does he get all of those steals, but he is one of many guards who can take care of the ball. Fresno State commits just 10.9 turnovers per game and forces 15.0 turnovers. Those extra possessions are huge and getting easy buckets off of steals is a great way to spark the offense too. Despite losing Torren Jones, the frontcourt is still tough on the glass. Juniors Karachi Edo and Cullen Russo have done a great job on the glass and are decent scorers too. Edo is the more traditional big man who stays in the paint and blocks shots, while Russo can stretch the defense with his shooting ability.
Why They Can Disappoint:
Just about everybody on the team besides Edo is a shooter, but this group does not shoot particularly well from anywhere on the floor. When the offense works through Edo in the post, the Bulldogs offense is a little more effective in the half-court offense. Guards Cezar Guerrero and Julien Lewis are not major scorers, but they are capable of adding another dimension to the offense. In the MW title game against San Diego State, Harris was the only player in double digits, but six other players scored at least six points. In a low scoring affair against the Aztecs, that is great balance. And balance will be key again in the NCAA Tournament.
Probable Starters:
Cezar Guerrero, Senior, Guard, 8.3 ppg, 2.4 apg
Marvelle Harris, Senior, Guard, 20.6 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 4.4 apg, 2.2 spg
Julien Lewis, Senior, Guard, 8.6 ppg, 1.7 apg
Cullen Russo, Junior, Forward, 8,0 ppg, 6.2 rpg
Karachi Edo, Junior, Forward, 9.9 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 1.6 bpg
Key Roleplayers:
Terrell Carter, Sophomore, Center, 4,0 ppg, 2.5 rpg
Lionel Ellison, Junior, Guard, 1.6 ppg, 1.1 apg
Jahmel Taylor, Sophomore, Guard, 4.9 ppg, 1 apg
Paul Watson, Junior, Forward, 7.6 ppg, 3.2 rpg
By the Numbers:
Scoring Offense: 75.3 (125th in nation, 6th in conference)
Scoring Defense: 70.8 (146, 3)
Field-Goal Percentage: 43.5 (202, 6)
Field-Goal Defense: 42.2 (104, 5)
Three-Point Field Goals Per Game: 6.2 (255, 8)   
Three-Point Field-Goal Percentage: 34.2 (189, 5)
Free-Throw Percentage: 68.6 (219, 8)
Rebound Margin:  1.4 (142, 6)
Assists Per Game:  13.8 (139, 5)
Turnovers Per Game:  10.9 (29, 1)
Recent Postseason Appearances:
2014    CBI      First Round win over UTEP
2014    CBI      Quarterfinal win over Princeton
2014    CBI      Semifinal win over Old Dominion
2014    CBI      Final loss to Siena
2007    NIT      First Round loss to Georgia
*all team stats through 3/6