College Football Playoff Scenarios (Week 13)

Alabama College Football

College Football Playoff Scenarios (Week 13)

It was another very surprising week in College Football, but then again, you really can’t be surprised after what has happened so far this season. Two teams were eliminated after week 12, and with Arizona State’s loss to Oregon State, the Sun Devils are pretty much out of the picture. With just two weeks left in the regular season, things are starting to get heated up. Let’s break down the scenarios.




Teams Eliminated Last Week:
1) Auburn (7-3)
2) Nebraska (8-2)


Control Own Destiny:
#1 Alabama (9-1)
#2 Oregon (9-1)
#3 Florida State (10-0)
#5 TCU (9-1)


Teams That Need Help:

#4 Mississippi State (9-1)
1) Win out, and have one team in front of them lose (Alabama, Oregon, Florida State) OR have TCU lose
Notes: Yes, #5 TCU controls their own destiny and #4 Mississippi State doesn’t. Here’s why: If TCU and MSU both win out, and the Bulldogs don’t reach the SEC Title game, they would probably choose the Big-12 champ Horned Frogs instead. Mississippi State needs to root for a TCU-Baylor tie, which would have the Bears on top of the Big-12. (No way the committee chooses Baylor over Mississippi State)

#6 Ohio State (9-1)
1) Win out, including B1G Championship Game.
2) Have two teams in front of them lose once (Alabama, Oregon, Florida State, Mississippi State, TCU)
Notes: I still think that the committee would choose a one-loss Mississippi State team that did not win their conference over the B1G champ Buckeyes. Every week that loss against Virginia Tech hurts them even more.

#7 Baylor (8-1)
1) Win out, and win Big-12 Championship.  
2) Have 3 teams in front of them lose once (Alabama, Oregon, Florida State, TCU, Mississippi State, Ohio State)
Notes: I personally feel that the Bears are not getting enough respect. They beat TCU, who is two spots ahead of them. There is still a chance that if it did come down Baylor and TCU (and it might), they would choose the Bears who beat TCU. But based on what I’ve seen from the committee, that won’t happen.


Now this is when it gets VERY tricky:

#9 Mississippi (8-2)
1) Win out, including win over Mississippi State
2) Auburn beats Alabama (If those two things happen, Ole Miss wins SEC West.)
3) Win SEC Championship Game
Notes: Ole Miss needed Bama to beat Mississippi State, and they did. If the Rebels can find a way to win the SEC, they will more than likely get into the playoff.

#10 Georgia (8-2)
1) Win out
2) Missouri loses one more game (If those two things happen, UGA wins SEC East)
3) Win SEC Championship Game
Notes: Georgia, like Ole Miss, needs to win the SEC if they want to get into the Playoff. With another impressive win last week, the Dawgs are back in the mix.


Other teams with a very, very, very slim chance:
1) UCLA (8-2)
2) Michigan State (8-2)
3) Arizona State (8-2)
4) Kansas State (7-2)


Twitter: @WScottCSM