Betting Turf - Week 11 Football
Gambling sharps (the best gamblers around) are right roughly 57% of the time. That figure sounds low to most. But, in fact, it is a high enough figure to make a living off of. The key to being a sharp is not only picking more winners than losers, but also finding the best lines and odds for your bets. An extra half point here, an extra point there makes a huge difference over the course of a season. Unfortunately, shopping for lines is a lengthy process that takes time all week right up until kickoffs in some cases. And probably more unfortunate is the fact that I'm no sharp.
With that in mind, here on The Betting Turf, I will be aiming for 53%. If I am right more than I am wrong, I should stay in the black. This should hopefully factor in the vig as well. Oddsmakers take a percentage of all bets, meaning nailing exactly half your bets (assuming equal money is laid down) will not result in the gambler breaking even. They must also cover the juice taken away from each wager. Without further ado...
There went another week of clarity for the College Football Playoff rankings. Auburn knocked off Ole Miss, thus securing the Tigers’ spot in the top four for week 11 and dropping the Rebels out of the picture. The win itself wasn’t anything but convincing, but that hardly matters for the sake of the rankings. If Laquon Treadwell had dropped the ball two feet further up the field (i.e. in the endzone), Mississippi would be sitting at third in the nation and Auburn would have its season be over.
…which just goes to highlight the spectacularly difficult job it is to distinguish between the very best teams. You don’t want committee members splitting hairs between types of wins, but it should factor into the decision somewhat. Mississippi State and Florida State, for example, did not remove doubt about their respective candidacies. If anything, they leave the remote possibility alive that eventually an 11-1 team could be leaped over a 12-0 who looks shaky week after week…if the committee actually has the gusto to do such a thing.
Wisconsin -16
Purdue +16
With just one blip to the contrary, Wisconsin has been clowning people all year since the season’s opening week loss to LSU. Running back Corey Clement and quarterback Tanner McEvoy have combined to tally 1,097 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground while averaging over 7.3 yards per carry even though McEvoy is splitting time behind center with Joel Stave. Oh yeah, I almost forgot. Wisconsin also has Melvin Gordon, the nation’s fourth-leading rusher and one of only three guys in the country who’ve scored at least 19 touchdowns this season. Purdue, on the other hand, just allowed 178 yards on the ground to Nebraska after Ameer Abdullah got hurt and didn’t return.
Duke -3
Syracuse +3
Syracuse has not been a good football team this year. Losers of six of its last seven games, the Orange struggle to muster up any offense against pretty much anyone. Duke, meanwhile, is rounding into shape. Assuming they aren’t looking ahead, planning plane tickets and such for the ACC championship game next month, the Blue Devils should easily cover this one.
Georgia Tech -3.5
NC State +3.5
This line opened at Georgia Tech -4 and quickly shot up to -5.5. Over the next few days, it subsequently got bet back down to below where it started, which is a very odd occurrence, but one worth jumping on. The Yellow Jackets have been very up and down this season (kind of like this spread). Justin Thomas can’t throw (48.4 completion percentage), but he sure can run. Poor NC State feasted on its out-of-conference slate and then got chopped back down to size once ACC games got underway. At home, it hasn’t performed any better than on the road. This game’s line fluctuation is even more bizarre in that NC State has no business being such a slight underdog.
2014 Record Against the Spread: 17-18
