Betting Turf - Week 10 Football
Gambling sharps (the best gamblers around) are right roughly 57% of the time. That figure sounds low to most. But, in fact, it is a high enough figure to make a living off of. The key to being a sharp is not only picking more winners than losers, but also finding the best lines and odds for your bets. An extra half point here, an extra point there makes a huge difference over the course of a season. Unfortunately, shopping for lines is a lengthy process that takes time all week right up until kickoffs in some cases. And probably more unfortunate is the fact that I'm no sharp.
With that in mind, here on The Betting Turf, I will be aiming for 53%. If I am right more than I am wrong, I should stay in the black. This should hopefully factor in the vig as well. Oddsmakers take a percentage of all bets, meaning nailing exactly half your bets (assuming equal money is laid down) will not result in the gambler breaking even. They must also cover the juice taken away from each wager. Without further ado...
The first edition of the College Football Playoff ranking was released this week. It was newsworthy only in the fact that it exists. The current rankings of each team at this moment are mostly irrelevant. For example, Auburn and Ole Miss were both placed inside the committee’s top four, making them eligible for the playoff. However, this week, the two play each other, meaning one is sure to drop from next week’s list.
The only interesting piece of the rankings was the cloak of mystery surrounding the choices. No one’s specific ranks were released, nor was the voting itself made public. The committee decided to punish Notre Dame for a lack of impressive wins but decided to not do the same for Florida State even though the Seminoles would have lost to the Irish head-to-head if not for a shaky whistle on the game’s final play.
They also left Ole Miss ahead of Alabama because of the head-to-head win even though Alabama’s lone loss was “better” yet did not do the same when it came to TCU and Baylor. It would be nice to know the intricacies of each member’s vote moving forward, but it doesn’t appear as though that will happen.
Auburn +2.5
Mississippi -2.5
Mississippi is no longer spotless on the right side of the ledger after losing last week. They could fall again in week 10. For Ole Miss fans, Bo Wallace was scary in that LSU game. Even scarier was the fact that the Rebels defense allowed 264 yards on the ground at 4.8 per clip. Auburn enters as a top 10 team in the nation in rushing. Although not as potent as a year ago, Nick Marshall still has that ground game humming. The fact that Auburn is getting a couple points here is balanced out by it having to play on the road, but it’s still a nice buffer to have.
Florida +13
Georgia -13
It was announced that Todd Gurley will miss two more games for the Georgia Bulldogs while he serves his suspension. It shouldn’t matter in this one. The offense has looked great in his absence. Freshman Nick Chubb has 68 carries for 345 yards in the last two games alone. Meanwhile, there remain three schools in the SEC who have yet to collect a conference win and somehow Florida is not one of them. It sure has seemed like the Gators were one of the worst teams here. A triple-overtime victory over Kentucky and a 10-9 embarrassment of a W over Tennessee are what Florida has managed in conference play. On the road, it won’t be able to stay under this spread.
Utah +5.5
Arizona State -5.5
Some interesting things are transpiring on the west coast. The Pac-12 South alone has quietly slipped four teams into the top 25. While I like what I’ve seen out of Arizona and Utah, perhaps fairly or unfairly, I’ve yet to come around on Arizona State. This will be a very telling matchup. Attempting to play the common opponent game is dangerous, but both these schools beat USC while ASU got crushed by UCLA at home and Utah managed to topple the Bruins on the road. In addition, the Sun Devils had a little something extra with Mike Bercovici behind center. With Taylor Kelly back, they seem less frightening.
ECU -7
Temple +7
The shine has worn off the East Carolina Pirates. This isn’t exactly their fault. They still haven’t lost since week two. However, closer-than-expected wins each of the last three weeks were as good as losses in terms of national publicity. To remain in the conversation, ECU would have had to win 70-41 every week. The Pirates still have one of the premiere passing offenses in the country. At Temple, that should be enough.
2014 Record Against the Spread: 15-16
