Betting Turf - Week 13 Football
Gambling sharps (the best gamblers around) are right roughly 57% of the time. That figure sounds low to most. But, in fact, it is a high enough figure to make a living off of. The key to being a sharp is not only picking more winners than losers, but also finding the best lines and odds for your bets at reputable houses like William Hill and their free betting site at . An extra half point here, an extra point there makes a huge difference over the course of a season. Unfortunately, shopping for lines is a lengthy process that takes time all week right up until kickoffs in some cases. And probably more unfortunate is the fact that I'm no sharp.
With that in mind, here on The Betting Turf, I will be aiming for 53%. If I am right more than I am wrong, I should stay in the black. This should hopefully factor in the vig as well. Oddsmakers take a percentage of all bets, meaning nailing exactly half your bets (assuming equal money is laid down) will not result in the gambler breaking even. They must also cover the juice taken away from each wager. Without further ado...
With all of the wild action that has gone on this season, it only makes sense that this late in the year, week 13 appears as dead as a doornail. A bunch of matchups are predicted blowouts and a number of others have no line at all for various reasons.
In fact, six of the top seven teams in the country are active this Saturday, and all six of those teams’ contests either have no line or a spread of at least three scores (-19 is the smallest favorite at the moment). It’s only logical. As we learn more and more about the better teams, point spreads rise to force action on the sides no one wants. No one feels good about taking Vanderbilt against an angry Mississippi State team at home. How many points would you need before begrudgingly taking the Commodores; 21.5, 29, five touchdowns?
USC +3.5
UCLA -3.5
The USC Trojans are somehow in first place in the Pac-12 South. No one quite knows how it happened. USC hasn’t been in the national conversation for weeks now. The reason is, they’ve beaten weaklings and lost to everyone remotely good other than a two-point road victory over Arizona back in early October. With this being the team’s final conference game of the season, a slipup now opens the door for the rest of the jumbled conference. And UCLA is ready to cause that slipup. The Bruins appear to have righted the ship after back-to-back losses in October sent them to 1-2 in the Pac-12. Four straight wins, with three coming on the road, have UCLA flying high and ready to topple its rival. Another half point off this spread would have been perfect, but I’ll take it at -3.5 anyway.
Arizona +4
Utah -4
Utah doesn’t beat anybody by this many points! No, really. All of its Pac-12 wins have either come in overtime or by three points or fewer. In fact, two of its three conference losses also fit that description with the lone exception being a blowout loss to the Oregon Ducks. Arizona meanwhile has looked good on the road, going 3-1 with one of those victories coming over Oregon. In a supremely important battle in the Pac-12 South standings, take the points and expect another tightly contested match.
Georgia State +40.5
Clemson -40.5
Call this one what it is, a silly but fun risk to take. Clemson could certainly (will certainly?) overwhelm Georgia State from the opening kick with its superior size, strength and speed. However, we saw last week how truly awful a talented team like the Tigers can look with a negative at the quarterback position. It has already been announced that Cole Stoudt will be starting this game. If he can’t completely block out and move on from going 3-of-11 with three interceptions, it will be an uphill battle to cover this many points for sure.
2014 Record Against the Spread: 22-20
